Surprise, surprise. Who ever thought there would be any kind of fight against the Taliban take over? Reports of three villages having been taken by resistance fighters raises many questions. There have also been reports of Afghanis protesting in street. Also reported is that some have been killed. This is to be expected by such Islamic thugs.
There was also a report of some 600 American trained Afghani special forces soldiers threatening a mass suicide. What if that is a cover story? Instead, what if some private mercenaries (aka former Seals, Rangers, Green Berets, etc.) stayed behind. They have been there long enough to know how to function in that environment.
Add to this the unanswered questions about the estimated ten thousand plus Americans and other foreign nationals spread around the country. Such a group would still be a minority. But then again so were the American patriots in the American Revolutionary War.
The Taliban are brutal but weak tyrants. 75,000 soldiers spread across a country the size of Texas is not going to be able to rule the population. Add to that reports of the Taliban killing existing law enforcement, and you have a formula for failure.
The pushback from the Aghan people may be a slow burn, but they have gotten a taste of freedom. Especially the women will be looking at this situation and look for ways to get back some of that freedom. If that gets coupled with a growing resistance movement, one could see a real revolution all over again. It will be extremely messy. It will be worse than anything the country has ever gone through.
An overriding fact must be at the top of the list. The Taliban: 1) Are not that well organized, 2) Lack adequate command-and-control systems, and 3) Neither have nor know how to run a real governmental infrastructure. If there are experienced mercenaries on the ground, they will know how to exploit those weaknesses.
A truism of war strategy is that if two opposing forces are of equal size, then there can be a head on engagement. If one side has an army and the other only a division, then the smaller force is limited to a flanking action. If one side is outnumbered, then they have to resort to guerilla strategies and tactics.
The power of the internet can amplify the impact of harassment and hit-and-run attacks. The more the Taliban become embarrassed and ridiculed, the more support the resistance will gain. Maybe not America, but other countries may start to provide other covert aid. India comes to mind. There are many other possibilities. The Chinese Communist Party could throw itself into this situation, but they would be perceived as another foreign presence. Afghanistan’s reputation as a place where other empire builders go to die should be kept foremost in their mind.
There is a final point of consideration looming over this whole situation in Afghanistan. America screwed up big time. But right now there are some 5,000 U.S. troops, and possibly more coming, who are supposed to stabilize the situation around the Kabul airport. It will not take a lot for the so-called relationship between the American soldiers and the Taliban degrade into all out violence. Combine that with possible coordination with any resistance groups, and the Taliban will have a real problem on their hands. The image of the Taliban patrolling the streets looking for resisters should give them a sense of what it is like to be an American soldier.
The American government officials who created this mess (intentionally) will not be in a position to make it worse. The whole world is watching and many Americans are catching on to their game. Instead, the pressure will be on to bring the Taliban to heel in order to protect the Americans still trapped there. That means loud public pressure on the Taliban. International support means something. Moreover, a decision to destroy the link between between the Taliban and the Pakistani intelligence services could be a mortal blow.
Yes, the guilty American government officials will look for every excuse to avoid these decisions. The rapidly shifting events described above could push Afganistan in a whole new direction.