OP-ED: FIGHTING IRAN TO THE DEATH WITH LAZY ALLIES

There are no good answers for dealing with Iran.  A huge country with a huge population filled with millions who will fight to the death for their Shia beliefs is a bad situation.  The military situation may be in America’s favor, but we also know that neighboring countries are being hurt and should get in the fight.  But they are still cowering where they live even though they have been hit by numerous missiles.

They have standing militaries in name only.  The prospect of sending their sons to fight is terrifying them.  They are the spoiled rich kids of the mid-East.  In fact, maybe all of the mid-East is filled  with spoiled kids, with the possible exception of Iran.  Everything about the mid-East is pointing the wrong direction and  we have to fix  it somehow.

Nearly 50 years of a country screaming “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” while spreading state-sponsored terrorism is more than enough.  How many past presidents are regretting they did nothing about Iran?  Yes, we are talking about you, too, Obama.

Meantime,  Steve Bannon and others have called for these spoiled kids to man up and get in the fight.  This is especially true since they have been attacked and suffered financial losses as a result.

The Big Flaw:  No Human Intelligence in Iran

The pressure that will be applied to the spoiled kids will only address one big problem.  There is an even bigger one.  Israel lied to America (again) about what their human intelligence told them.  We foolishly believe there would be a civilian uprising ready to go.  No such thing has happened.  Maybe there is one in the future, but there are no leaders in sight.  There is a claim that the State Department is “interviewing” for possible leaders.  That doesn’t sound promising.

All of this is going to take a lot more than the promised three weeks to finish this crisis.  The slow positioning of the expeditionary forces is needed.  But timing is a huge question.  What is being done here cannot be confused how Eisenhower planned the D-Day invasion.  When you look back to that time, we had spies and the French Resistance running interference in enemy territory.  There is no sign that we have any significant spies or resistance inside Iran.

The answer?  Do this as slowly as possible.  Despite the worries over the mid-term elections, doing anything other than what it takes to defeat the enemy, whether it takes one month or one year must be done.  There is the old saying “timing is everything”.  It applies very much here.  This also implies there is an end point as well.  Ignore the calls an “exit strategy”. 

There is a reasonable expectation of a time arc to this conflict, and it is not three weeks or even three months.  It is an arc dictated by political realities more than military realities.  And, if necessary, it will be done without our lazy allies.  That said, this editorial ends with a truly outrageous consideration.  There can be unexpected allies.  Top of the list?  Afghanistan.  Yes, that is outrageous.  However, if you know more about the Afghan militias currently on the ground using American equipment from Biden’s disastrous withdrawal.

In addition, there is a mutual defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.  For attacking Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has already launched missiles into Iran.  Not part of the discussion is also the conflict between Balochistan and Iran as well as Pakistan.  What does this lead up to?  A multi-front conflict for the IRGC.  Divide and conquer may be our only choice.  There is a history of ethnic tensions, border conflicts, and now this.

The degrading of Iranian military assets must continue, as well as negotiations. But we have to quickly repair the human intelligence deficit as well as get creative with creating unexpected alliances. 

Also, not in this op-ed is a discussion of the Hormuz Strait.  The U.S. Navy understands what needs to be done.  Despite the critics, the smartest thing to do is let them do their job.