THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Karma is a bitch.  47 years of screaming “Death to America”, “Death to Israel” has finally reached the limit under strong leadership from President Trump.  Decades of negotiating with Iran over their nuclear energy program finally reached a critical turning point with the bombing of their nuclear facilities in June 2025.  However, despite all the destruction that was done.  The Iranian government could  only flap their gums and exhibit zero contrition. 

There was still more back and forth over what to do next with Iran. There was also the failed uprising in January while we were supplying arms to the Kurds.  February was the build up. Then March was just the beginning of regime change for this tortured nation.   

Here we find ourselves in mid-April.  The so-called peace talks failed quickly.  So, now, the U.S. Navy will blockade the Hormuz Strait.  It is a tall for the U.S. Navy to successfully manage such a blockade.  While the Gulf states will continue shipping, the big question is how effectively will the U.S. Navy detect fraud or deceit by ships pretending to go to a Gulf state port.

The buried lede is the amount of work needing to be done to clear mines from the strait.  The poor way the Iranians have managed mine laying has created a lot of unknowns for the clearing operation.  The U.S. Navy has phenomenal technology for clearing mines.  This will be a big learning opportunity.  The thought to keep in mind is that the operational lessons learned in the Strait of Hormuz may apply to the Strait of Taiwan.

The Greater Danger

Ruthless does not even begin to describe the attitude of the IRGC towards its own people.  There are concerns that the government will start executing people at an accelerated pace.  They have already been several public hangings in an effort to suppress and intimidate the Iranian people.  The tens of thousands slaughtered in January has also caused many citizens to hold back from protesting in the streets.

Moreover, as Prince Pavlavi continues to build a new government, the pressure on the Islamic Republic will only get more intense and make them even more repressive.

So, President Trump is confronted with two dimensions:  The Strait of Hormuz, and the people in the street.  What will the Islamic Republic do next?  They have more options with further violence against their people.  Hence, Pavlavi warned people to stay home until the military situation is resolved (read when the IGRC is defeated).  President Trump will have to put great pressure on the Islamic Republic to prevent more slaughter on the street. 

However, we may still be pressed to put American boots on the ground if for no other reason than to minimize the harm against the civilians.  Yes, there are other issues as well, but it should be clear that this remains the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.