TRUMP TO TRIP THE LIGHT FANTASTIC IN ASIA

OP-ED MONDAY, 27 OCT 25

Trump’s legendary skills at 5-dimensional chess will be put to the test like never before on this long trip to Asia.  So far, we know Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and China are on his itinerary.  If nothing else, he is making clear Asia is the main event for America.  Later we learned there was a “side” meeting with officials from Qatar.  Did the jet training deal in Idaho have anything to do with it?

President Trump will attend two regional  Asian conferences; ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) in Maslaysia and APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperations)  in South Korea.  Already these meetings have been “overshadowed” by the negotiations with Communist China.   He will at least touch base with the many other regional participants.  Then he goes to South Korea, which is now a new proxy state for Communist China.  There are a few things to iron out there.

Then comes the big show down – Trump v. Xi.  They are scheduled to meet on October 30^th at the ASEAN conference.  The anticipation is palpable.  The press starts using big words.  However, press accounts have us believing that the negotiations are already underway.

Nonetheless, Trump will be smiling at the press, reassuring them that Xi and he are getting along just fine, he’s a great man, and we have developed strong relations going forward in trade and other areas, blah, blah.

Meantime, we need to keep in mind that, reportedly,  Xi’s status in the Communist party has only improved following their latest plenary planning session.  Despite rumors that his grip on power was fading, instead, we are told that he is stronger than ever and that the Chinese people support his pugnacious attitude towards America.  What’s that saying:  Concede Little and Punch a Lot?

So, unless President Trump comes with a string of victories before the meeting, it sounds like he will have an uphill battle against Xi.  Also, it can be appreciated that basic ideas like chess, a boxing matching, or “tough negotiations” may not apply here.  That said, we are presented with an inconsistent picture already.  On the one hand, pre-negotiations have started on the framework for a new trade agreement.  Why does one get the feeling these trade negotiations are a foregone conclusion?

Instead, it will be some complex and subtle combination of trade, finance, and geopolitics which may determine the outcome.  Whether we get to know about the real details is an open question.  We will hear about rare earth minerals, tariffs, violations of the 2019 trade agreement, fentanyl, and trade with Russia.  But is that everything?

What’s Missing or Who is Missing From the Asia Trip?

Based on the news media, there seems to be no mention of a number of topics.  Why might seem obvious only because of what IS being talked about.  Still, these are related topics affected by these events.

Countries Missing From the Discussion - India?  Australia?  Indonesia?  What those nations have in common is that they are part of the group of nations working together to block encroachment by the Communist Chinese navy.  But he is not meeting any of them while seeing Xi?

Deals With Smaller Countries – Even though these regional conferences are relatively small, it seems that it is an opportunity to gain futher levereage in Asia by highlighting ANYTHING with these smaller countries.  But it looks like no.

Taiwan  -  Perhaps Xi wants to reinforce a point or two, but again the press has been notably quiet about Taiwan.  Why? That President Donald Trump prevented Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te from going to  New York is not even window dressing.

No Discussion of Military Cooperation  - Even though China is increasingly bellicose in the region, this seems to be another blind spot in press coverage.  Even with Japan we would expect some kind of announcement strengthening our military ties with Japan in light of China’s aggressive behavior.  Perhaps Trump is trying to project more the peacemaker in Asia.

Well, we could say he can’t do everything on this trip.  There’s only so many hours in the day, even for the Energizer Bunny.  It follows that the military component of the discussion will be downplayed on this trip.  Instead, consistent with President Trump seeing himself as a peacemaker, he will promote economic solutions.  Stephen Miller suggested that his discussions with the new Japanese prime minister will lead to hundreds of billions more being invested in America.

There will still be several days to do, and lots can still happen.  Expect surprises.