IRAN IS BECOMING A “SPOOK” WAR

The assault on Iran has a foreground and a background.  The foreground is what we see in the news.  The background stays out of the news.  However, what is happening in the background may be far more important to the outcome of this assault than what is  in the foreground.  Will there be a point where the background steps out of the shadows?  The answer is yes; events in the shadows eventually have to come forth.  However, there is an important context.

The rapid degradation of Iranian military assets may eliminate the equipment needed for fighting, but it has apparently has not degraded the remaining Mullah’s spirit for fighting; nor that of their supporters.  If there are fewer weapons with which to fight, if the enemy becomes harder to find, and if they are still fighting in different ways, what is left?  Well, what is left for America and Israel is the hard grind of LOCATING the enemy.  Welcome to the “spook” war.  Where are they hiding?  How many of them are there?  What kind of support are they getting from the population? 

Answering these questions forms the “invisible” side of the war where intelligence and surveillance matter more than bullets and bombs.  Intelligence?  Surveillance? Now we are talking about a war run by “spooks”.  It becomes a war of shadows, illusions and deceit.  

Ultimately, conventional weapons will still finish the job.  Some might want to call this a “mop up” operation. That is only true when they have broken the fighting spirit of the enemy.  That would not be the case here.  Sure some have surrendered, but there are so many more still in the fight one way or another.   According to the all knowing Internet, Iran has a standing army of some 600,000 active duty personnel, 300,000 reservists and 250,000 law enforcement.

Despite 200 senior military officers defecting, and 3,000 soliders dead, these Iranian forces are perfectly capable of reconstituting themselves no matter how degraded their military equipment may be.  Plus, you can be sure that Russia and China are rushing to help out.

Not Trump’s War

This is not “Trump’s War” for a host of reasons: 1)  It is not a personal vendetta, 2) It is not going to turn out the way expected by the current plans, and 3) It will become a war most likely at the bottom of the Pentagon’s list of expected developments:  An insurgency.  In a region famous for long term grudges this is the worst outcome.

One of Trump’s misleading characterizations is that the mullahs lack a way to seriously challenge the invasion.   Instead, the mullah’s have anticipated this and planned for it since at least June 2025.  THEIR strategy is to drag out the conflict as much as possible.  If they have planned properly, they will have distributed their military assets. Every American “victory” will come at a great cost.  Air supremacy? Satellites? Drones? We can’t cover every square inch of Iran’s mountainous territory.  Decoys and other forms of fakery can be used extensively to mislead us.  Bet on the Iranians inventing other forms of resistance.

I would submit to the reader that nothing in military conflict is ever obsolete.  There was once a picture on the front page of the New York Post shortly after America invaded Afghanistan in 2001.  It showed a soldier riding on a donkey(Use the search term:  Were donkeys actually used by Special Forces in Afghanistan?).  The point was that Americans quickly learned that donkey’s were the superior choice to Humvees and other mechanical means of transport in the rugged areas of Afghanistan.

There is a story of a war game constructed for the purpose of pitting one group with all the advantages of modern technology against another group that had none.  Yes, the group with no advanced technology won.  The non-tech group used donkey’s for couriers to convey important information from division to division.  Maybe this doesn’t happen all the time, but this demonstrates that a group which you think is at a disadvantage can actually beat what others think is a superior force.

Homefield Advantage

There is another big factor not getting enough attention:  Iran has homefield advantage.  They know the lay of the land.  They know where to hide, where to fight and where not to fight.  That they have planned for this is not getting enough attention in the press.

This is perhaps the single most important point to keep in mind.  Plus, as this becomes a spook war, that will further play into the hands of the Iranians.  The intelligence and surveillance fielded by the mullahs will prove very effective here.  Reason?  Trump’s plan calls for American boots on the ground.

Will American Troops Be Sent Into Iran? Yes

Buried somewhere in Reddit is a clip of a young man, ex-military, relaying conversations he had with some guys still in the service who received orders they are going to Iran.  One was the 82^nd Airborne.  Another is a special forces unit.  When you look at the news around this, it is most hints, conjectures and claims.  So, here is the claim. But 15 March 2026, there will be American troops on the ground in Iran.  Stay tuned.