OP-ED: NOW WE SEE

The first message to send is this:  Dear Steve Bannon, It turns out Ukraine was so much more strategic than you thought, or any of us for that matter.  Put simply, Ukraine remains key in weakening Russia’s ability to honor foreign commitments.  That’s it in a nutshell.  Weakening Russia’s ability to function in Venezuela, Syria, and Iran is creating panic in Moscow.  China’s junior partner has increasingly serious problems and fewer options by which to succeed.  These events are also casting doubt on Russia’s ability to honor future commitments with other countries.  The geopolitical calculus has changed globally.

The puzzling, worrisome, and surprising events in the world since late December are beginning to make sense:  Now we see.

These events have shown impactful connections we did not consider at the time.  The biggest of these is Venezuela.  The exit of China, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah from Venzeuela has hurt them financially and geopolitically.  This is huge.  They have lost a big customer, a base of operations and the ability to operate in America’s backyard, so to speak.  Also hurt is Cuba.  Besides talk of going after Cuba next, the loss of Venezuela’s support is expected to accelerate the decline of Cuba.

The events in Venezuela also are a black eye for Russia and China.  Maduro had relied on their military equipment which essentially failed him.  Also, there was a report of negotiations with a Communist Chinese delegation in Caracas which had to be cut short.  The sense that Russia and China were not willing to stand up to their biggest foe makes them look weak.  The failure of their air defense systems has ramifications in the rest of the world as  well.  China will have to reconsider how it will deal with Taiwan. The ability of Russia to maintain defenses in Ukraine are also now in question.   Those countries which invested in Russia’s air defense systems will have to face up to the possibility that those systems are substandard. This will reduce sales of Russian military equipment more than it has already been reduced internationally.

We see how the Ukraine-Russia conflict has weakened Russia enough to make it impossible for them to protect or help Venezuela in any substantiative way.  In fact, this has hurt the international image of Russia as an ally.  They have been in Venezuela long enough to embed themselves in the country.  Instead, pressure from America caused them to leave.  This act has triggered failings in other places, only hurting Russia even more.  But this is supposed to be about Venezuela.

However, there is a bigger message which Americans should scrutinize very closely.  Around April, President Trump suggested that America’s tariff scheme had propped up many foreign economies over the years.  Exhibit A should be Canada.  The series of bad policy decisions they have made over the last ten years have  culminated in a condition of economic weakness only made worse by the increased tariffs.  President Trump has commented that there was nothing America needed from Canada.  Some may argue that is not quite true.  The complex and messy tariff schedules between the two countries show that America has tolerated paying much higher prices for Canadian products than the other way around.  Similarly, these tariffs weaken other economies including our enemies.

Then there is another strange thought.  The combination of Ukraine maintaining pressure on Russia, the losses in Venezuela and Iran, along with even stronger sanctions against Russia internationally, will further cause decline in Russia such that, of all things, Russia may become a junior partner not of China, but of the EU.  Ponder that.

Conclusion

We get it now.  Everything is connected in ways that we do not see easily.  It takes big events like those in Venezuela to begin to understand how certain international relations can unravel.  What we also see is the beginning of fundamental changes in how various nations are aligned.  It is a process which has only begun, and can still go sideways in many respects.

Are we reduced to mere observers of these events over the next several months? Pretty much.  President Trump will have to make a number of hard decisions.  Greenland is one, and there will be many more.  That’s right, stay tuned.